53-year old manager Bud Black seemed to work his magic wand last year for the Padres who finished last season 90-72 (55.6%), just missing the playoffs. The Padres are now 317-332 (48.8%) in Black’s first four years in charge. This year is going to be much more challenging for the Padres’ manager as the offense looks pretty iffy for 2011. They won’t be able to replace Adrian Gonzalez’ bat, so the success of the Padres is going to fall on Black’s pitching staff once again.

The Padres will have a outstanding bullpen once again in 2011. It all starts with 33-year old righty closer Heath Bell. Bell pitched in 67 games (0 starts) for the Padres last year and he was 6-1 with 47 saves, a 1.93 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He has now pitched in 290 games (0 starts) in his first four years with the Padres and he is 24-15 with 91 saves, a 2.54 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Bell has only given up 236 hits while whiffing 338 batters in his first 311 1/3 innings with the Padres. I look for him to have another outstanding year in 2011.

32-year old righty Mike Adams has turned into one of the best set-up men in all of baseball since coming to San Diego. Adams pitched in 70 games (0 starts) for the Padres last year and he was 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He has now pitched in 161 games (0 starts) in his first three years with the Padres and he is 6-4 with a 1.81 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Look for Adams to be lights out once again in 2011.

26-year old righty Luke Gregerson is also a nasty late reliever for the Padres. He pitched in 80 games (0 starts) for the Padres last year and he was 4-7 with 2 saves, a 3.22 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Gregerson has now pitched in 152 games (0 starts) in his first two years with the Padres and he is 6-11 with 3 saves, a 3.23 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He has whiffed 182 batters in only 153 1/3 innings so far in his career with the Padres while only giving up 109 hits, which shows how nasty he is.

25-year old righty Ernesto Frieri looks like a pitcher on the rise for the Padres. He pitched in 33 games (0 starts) for the Padres last year and he was 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Frieri has now pitched in 35 games (0 starts) in his first two years with the Padres and he is 1-1 with a 1.60 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He has only given up 18 hits in his first 33 2/3 innings in the majors and he has 43 whiffs as he has been making getting major league hitters out look pretty easy so far in his career.

29-year old lefty Joe Thatcher is going to start this year on the D.L. He pitched in 65 games (0 starts) for the Padres last year and he was 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Thatcher has now pitched in 164 games (0 starts) in his first four years with the Padres and he is 4-6 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The Padres need him to get better soon.

32-year old righty Chad Qualls is trying to rebound from an awful 2010 season. He pitched in 70 games (0 starts) for the Rays & D-Backs last year and he was 3-4 with 12 saves, a 7.32 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. Qualls gave up an amazing 85 hits in only 59 innings last year as he wasn’t missing many bats. Qualls has now pitched in 460 games (0 starts) in his first 7 years in the majors and he is 32-26 with 51 saves, a 3.82 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

27-year old righty Samuel Deduno came into this season as the Rockies’ #27 prospect. He pitched in 4 games (0 starts) for the Rockies last year and he was 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Deduno also pitched in 10 games (all starts) in A+AAA-ball last year and he was 3-3 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He appears to have a nice upside.

35-year old lefty Randy Flores might get some action due to Thatcher’s injury. He pitched in 58 games (0 starts) for the Rockies & Twins last year and he was 2-0 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. Flores has now pitched in 350 games (3 starts) in his first 8 years in the majors and he is 11-5 with 4 saves, a 4.61 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP.

34-year old righty Geoff Geary pitched in 16 games (0 starts) for the Astros last year and he was 1-3 with a 8.10 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. He has now pitched in 287 games (0 starts) in his first 7 years in the majors and he is 16-10 with 1 save, a 3.92 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Geary hopes to get his career back on the right path in San Diego in 2011.

30-year old righty Pat Neshek was a late addition to the Padres’ pen this spring. He pitched in 11 games (0 starts) for the Twins last year and he was 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Neshek has now pitched in 132 games (0 starts) in his first four years in the majors and he is 11-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. If Neshek can stay healthy, he might have a big year for the Padres as he’s very talented.

26-year old righty Luis Perdomo pitched in 1 game (0 starts) for the Padres last year and he was 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He has now pitched in 36 games (0 starts) in his first two years with the Padres and he is 1-0 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Perdomo is going to have a hard time making the Padres in 2011 due to the depth of the pen.

24-year old lefty Aaron Poreda took a big step backward last year. He pitched in 39 games (1 start) in AA+AAA-ball and he was 1-2 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. He only gave up 31 hits in 54 minor league innings last year but he walked 64 batters which is amazingly awful. Poreda last pitched in the majors back in 2009 with the Padres. He has pitched in 14 games (0 starts) in his major league career and he is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Unless Poreda tightens his control up quite a bit, the Padres aren’t going to let him anywhere near San Diego.

PROJECTED GRADE FOR THE PADRES BULLPEN IN 2011: A+

It all starts with 23-year old righty Mat Latos. Latos started 31 games for the Padres last year and he was 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He only gave up 150 hits in 184 2/3 innings last season while whiffing 189 batters which shows just how nasty he is. Latos finished 8th in the N.L. Cy Young Award voting last year and he looks to just keep getting better. Latos has now started 41 games in his first two years with the Padres and he is 18-15 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Latos is going to be one of the better pitchers in the N.L. for a long time providing that he can just stay healthy.

27-year old lefty Clayton Richard will likely slot #2 in the Padres’ rotation heading into the 2011 season. Richard started 33 games for the Padres last season and he was 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. In his first two years with the Padres, he has started 45 games in which he is 19-11 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Richard could develop into an innings eating workhorse this year for the Padres.

32-year old righty Aaron Harang is going to love pitching half of his games at Petco Park this year. He pitched in 22 games (20 starts) for the Reds last year and he was 6-7 with a 5.32 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. Harang has now pitched in 240 games (234 starts) in his first 9 years in the majors and he is 81-87 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Harang was a good pitcher just a few years back, so I think going to San Diego could revive his career.

28-year old righty Tim Stauffer will likely be the Padres’ #4 starter when the 2011 season begins. Stauffer pitched in 32 games (7 starts) for the Padres last season and he was 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has now pitched in 64 games (38 starts) in his first five years with the Padres and he is 14-19 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Stauffer could be a big time late bloomer for the Padres as he pitched by far the best baseball of his major league career in 2010.

26-year old lefty Wade LeBlanc will likely be the Padres’ #5 starter when the 2011 season begins. LeBlanc pitched in 26 games (25 starts) for the Padres last year and he was 8-12 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He has now pitched in 40 games (38 starts) in his first three years with the Padres and he is 12-16 with a 4.51 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. LeBlanc will have to pitch better than he did last season if he wants to stick in the Padres’ rotation for the whole 2011 season.

26-year old lefty Cory Luebke comes into this season as the Padres’ #6 prospect according to Baseball America. He pitched in 4 games (3 starts) for the Padres last year and he was 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Luebke also pitched in 19 games (17 starts) last year in AA+AAA-ball in which he was 10-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. He is the most likely guy to bump Wade LeBlanc out of the starting rotation at some point in 2011.

29-year old righty Dustin Moseley will likely enter this year as the Padres’ long man in the pen. He pitched in 16 games (9 starts) for the Yankees last year and he was 4-4 with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Moseley has now pitched in 80 games (32 starts) in his first five years in the majors and he is 12-11 with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. Moseley could get some starts at some point for the Padres in 2011, as his stuff should play well at Petco Park.

PROJECTED GRADE FOR THE PADRES STARTING ROTATION IN 2011: B

28-year old lefty swinging Will Venable will be the Padres’ starting RF in 2011. Venable played in 131 games for the Padres last season and he was 96 of 392 (.245 avg, .732 OPS) with 60 runs scored, 13 homers, 51 RBIs and 29 stolen bases. Venable could very easily be a 20/30 man for the Padres in 2011, now that he has a full time starting gig. Venable played in 89 games in RF last season and he had 3 errors while showing good range, but he only had 1 assist and that’s pretty poor. I look for Venable to set career highs in probably every single counting stat in 2011 for the Padres.

24-year old righty swinging Aaron Cunningham and 30-year old righty swinging Chris Denorfia will also likely get some P.T in RF in 2011. Cunningham played in 17 error-free games in RF last season while showing off good range. Denorfia played in 18 error-free games in RF last season for the Padres and he showed poor range there but he did have 1 assist.

34-year old switch hitting Bobby Kielty is also in camp trying to revive his major league career. He last played in the majors back in 2007 with the Red Sox & A’s. Kielty has played in 599 games in his first 7 years in the majors and he is 456 of 1,792 (.254 avg, .757 OPS) with 257 runs scored, 53 homers, 253 RBIs and 21 stolen bases. He is a longshot to make the Padres in 2011.

PROJECTED GRADE FOR THE PADRES RF IN 2011: B-

23-year old righty swinging Cameron Maybin is going to be the Padres’ starting CF when they break camp. How long he holds onto the job will be up to him. Maybin played in 82 games for the Marlins last season and he is 68 of 291 (.234 avg, .663 OPS) with 46 runs scored, 8 homers, 29 RBIs and 9 stolen bases. Maybin has a career batting average of .246 with a .692 OPS over his first four years in the majors, so he has been pretty disappointing so far despite being considered a top prospect. Maybin had 4 errors and 4 assists (he has a strong throwing arm) in 77 games in CF last season while showing excellent range. Maybin will likely improve the Padres’ defense big time in the outfield, but they need him to start hitting like the scouts say he can.

30-year old righty swinging Chris Denorfia will backup Maybin in 2011. Denorfia played in 99 games for the Padres last season and he was 77 of 284 (.271 avg, .769 OPS) with 41 runs scored, 9 homers, 36 RBIs and 8 stolen bases. He had 2 errors in 50 games for the Padres last season in CF and he showed off excellent range and a good throwing arm (5 assists). Denorfia will get his fair share of P.T. in 2011 for the Padres.

27-year old lefty swinging Eric Patterson could also get some P.T. in CF for the Padres in 2011. Patterson played in 20 games in CF last season in which he had 1 error and 1 assist while showing pretty poor range.

24-year old switch hitting Luis Durango is a longshot to make the Padres this spring. Durango played in 28 games for the Padres last season and he was 12 of 48 (.250 avg, .558 OPS) with 8 runs scored, 4 RBIs and 5 stolen bases. He also played in 106 games in AAA-ball last season and he was 109 of 363 (.300 avg, .703 OPS) with 42 runs scored, 24 RBIs and 35 stolen bases. He played in 10 games in CF for the Padres last season and he had 1 error and 2 assists while showing awful range.

PROJECTED GRADE FOR THE PADRES CF IN 2011: C